WASHINGTON -- The 'greenhouse effect' that warms Earth's atmosphere will cause catastrophic climate changes that could begin by the next decade, but may also help world agriculture, the Environmental Protection Agency reported Tuesday.
The massive report, 'Can We Delay a Greenhouse Warming?' is the government's first warning of dire consequences from a global temperature rise caused by the burning of fossil fuels an increase in carbon dioxide levels.
'By the year 2000, the frequency of hotter days will be greater. It will be greater in Maine, it will be greater in Florida,' John Hoffman, director of strategic studies for the EPA, said at a briefing.
The study predicts changes in world weather patterns eventually will cause enormous disruption, including a rise in ocean levels and flooding of coastal cities.
But Hoffman noted that with more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, 'the agricultural community will increase productivity significantly.'
The additional carbon dioxide, he explained, enhances photosynthesis in green plants and decreases moisture requirements for plant growth.
But the report cautioned that if its models of climate activity prove accurate, 'Changes in world climate are likely to occur at an unprecedented rate. All human activities are likely to be in some way affected.
'Farming, transportation, coastal habitation, and the provision of water supplies are the most obvious. Some nations are likely to benefit from changes in climate; others will suffer,' said the study by EPA employee Stephen Seidel and consultant Dale Keyes.
Keyes said in an interview planning for the global warming 'should be on the research agenda now' because the projected increase in temperatures is 'geometric, tremendously fast.'
The report, finished last month, said current estimates suggest a 3.6-degree Fahrenheit rise could occur by 2040 and a 9-degree rise by 2100.
Previous global temperature changes 'have occurred over tens of thousands of years,' the report noted. But the projected warming induced by increases in carbon dioxide 'could equal historical changes in climate in a matter of only 120 years.'
'As a result, agricultural conditions will be significantly altered, environmental and economic systems potentially disrupted, and political institutions stressed,' it predicted.
John Hoffman, head of strategic studies for the EPA, told the New York Times, 'Major changes will be here by the years 1990 to 2000, and we have to learn how to live with them.'
'New York City could have a climate like Daytona Beach, Fla., by 2100,' he added.
The greenhouse or warming effect comes from increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It lets the sunlight that heats Earth enter the atmosphere but inhibits the escape of heat radiation into space. The carbon dioxide comes mainly from the burning of fossil fuels.
The report strongly recommends that planning begin now to deal with the changes global warming will produce. It said policy changes such as massive taxes on fossil fuels would only slightly delay temperature rises.
Even a total ban on coal burning by the year 2000 could delay major temperature increases by only about 15 years, said the report.
'Changes by the end of the 21st century could be catastrophic, taken in the context of today's world,' it said. A soberness and sense of urgency should underlie our response to a greenhouse warning.'
The report said sea levels could rise as much as 12 feet because of melting polar ice caps.
Even a small rise in sea levels 'could flood or cause storm damage to many of the major ports of the world, disrupt transportation networks, alter aquatic ecosystems and cause major sOifts in land development patterns,' it said.
'Farming, transportation, coastal habitation, and the provision of water supplies are the most obvious. Some nations are likely to benefit from changes in climate; others will suffer,' said the study by EPA employee Stephen Seidel and consultant Dale Keyes.
Keyes said in an interview planning for the global warming 'should be on the research agenda now' because the projected increase in temperatures is 'geometric, tremendously fast.'
The report, finished last month, said current estimates suggest a 3.6-degree Fahrenheit rise could occur by 2040 and a 9-degree rise by 2100.
Previous global temperature changes 'have occurred over tens of thousands of years,' the report noted. But the projected warming induced by increases in carbon dioxide 'could equal historical changes in climate in a matter of only 120 years.'
'As a result, agricultural conditions will be significantly altered, environmental and economic systems potentially disrupted, and political institutions stressed,' it predicted.
John Hoffman, head of strategic studies for the EPA, told the New York Times, 'Major changes will be here by the years 1990 to 2000, and we have to learn how to live with them.'
'New York City could have a climate like Daytona Beach, Fla., by 2100,' he added.
The greenhouse or warming effect comes from increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It lets the sunlight that heats Earth enter the atmosphere but inhibits the escape of heat radiation into space. The carbon dioxide comes mainly from the burning of fossil fuels.
The report strongly recommends that planning begin now to deal with the changes global warming will produce. It said policy changes such as massive taxes on fossil fuels would only slightly delay temperature rises.
Even a total ban on coal burning by the year 2000 could delay major temperature increases by only about 15 years, said the report.
'Changes by the end of the 21st century could be catastrophic, taken in the context of today's world,' it said. A soberness and sense of urgency should underlie our response to a greenhouse warning.'
The report said sea levels could rise as much as 12 feet because of melting polar ice caps.
Even a small rise in sea levels 'could flood or cause storm damage to many of the major ports of the world, disrupt transportation networks, alter aquatic ecosystems and cause major sOifts in land development patterns,' it said.
