WASHINGTON, Feb. 10 (UPI) -- The failed attempt to assassinate al-Qaida's deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahiri last month has plunged targeted killings into fresh controversy.
Analysts are divided over whether the United States should adopt an approach similar to the Israeli targeted killings policy as part of its War on Terror.
Addressing a Georgetown University conference on Wednesday, Daniel Byman of the Center for Peace and Security Studies said that whilst this tactic can be effective, it is "in general, not something the United States should do".
Since the 1970s, successive Israeli governments have prosecuted a policy of assassinating individuals believed to be a threat to national security.
For more than 30 years, Israel has used targeted killings in response to Islamic terrorist activity. The murder of 11 Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics triggered sustained action by the Israeli security forces. Ehud Barak, later prime minister of Israel, personally led the commando squad that killed Fatah spokesman Kamal Nasir in 1973.
The targeted killings policy was accelerated in response to the advent of the Palestinian intifada in September 2000.
However, this strategy has produced mixed results. Israeli attempts to disrupt the Lebanese organization Hezbollah provoked retaliation. In 1992, the militant group bombed the Israeli embassy in Argentina. According to Firaz Makzad, Eurasia Group Associate for the Middle East and North Africa, "these groups have a remarkable ability to rejuvenate".
Following the assassination of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, in March 2004, Hamas promised to exact a bloody revenge. Similar threats were made in the aftermath of the killing of Abdel Aziz al-Rantassi the following month.
However, statistics suggest the policy of targeted killings has achieved some success. The number of Israeli deaths resulting from terrorist attacks has declined from 172 in 2002 to 68 in 2004.
This can be explained in terms of the disruption assassinations can cause within terrorist cells. "Targeted killings reduce the number of skilled operatives", Byman said, and thus diminish the capacity of a terrorist organization to launch an attack
Selective assassinations can also place new constraints on the terrorists' lifestyle. Since the launch of the second intifada, Israeli security forces have adjusted their focus from operational leaders such as Salah Shehada, killed in July 2002, to political figures like Yassin.
Consequently, the political elite has been forced to focus increasingly on their own security. Indeed, Hamas have now decided not to identify future leaders.
Bynman said the Israeli experience offers some lessons for the United States? He said targeted killings should have a limited role in U.S. counter-terrorism policy. In many remote areas where there is no sovereignty, arrest is not possible and thus assassination can be an effective approach.
Beyond this, Byman counseled vigilance. Whereas Israel has deployed selective targeting against militants in the Palestinian territories, the U.S.-led War on Terror is being prosecuted on a global scale. This can influence the success of a targeted killings policy. "The United States needs the support of all countries because of al-Qaida's global presence", he said.
Makzhad endorsed this view. Israel's assassination policy has attracted criticism from many European countries. Large scale U.S adoption of such a strategy is "is likely to have a very negative effect on the relationship" between America and the European Union, he said.
A U.S.-targeted assassinations policy comparable to that of Israel may also have domestic repercussions. Although, as Makzhad points out, there has been no real backlash against the 18 deaths caused by the air strike intended for al-Zahawiri, this may change. Targeted killings "certainly kill innocent people", Byman said, and thus it is difficult to "sustain popular support for policies that are inherently ambiguous".
However, while some argue assassinations should play a limited role, other observers believe this strategy could be extremely effective in the War on Terror.
James Phillips, Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs at the Heritage Centre said that in Israel, targeted killings have had "a deterrent effect on leaders of terrorist organizations who too often feel they can conduct terrorist attacks with impunity".
Phillips said the nature of the U.S. war against al-Qaida necessitated the use of selective assassinations. "We are at war with al-Qaida and unfortunately it is difficult to arrest these people, particularly in countries like Pakistan which doesn't want U.S. troops walking around," he said.
Phillips said America's allies in the war on terror should endorse this approach to the al-Qaida threat. Despite their states opposition to the Israeli policy, European nations should "understand that after Sept. 11, 2001 we are at war", he said.
