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Analysis: A tipping point in Afghanistan?

By STEFAN NICOLA, UPI Germany Correspondent

BERLIN, Dec. 20 (UPI) -- Messages coming out of Afghanistan increasingly resemble those that have come out of Iraq: NATO claims it is winning the war against the Taliban while critics say the military missions must be accompanied by fast-tracked reconstruction efforts to prevent the country from falling apart.

First the positives: Afghanistan has come a long way since the U.S.-led Northern Alliance, backed by allies in Europe, drove out the Taliban and al-Qaida in its war directly after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. The country has since elected a democratic president, and is no longer a breeding and training ground for al-Qaida. The northern provinces are relatively stable, where schools, roads, and a functioning water and electricity system have been implemented by the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force.

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But then there's the bad news: When ISAF took over the south from the U.S.-led Operation Enduring Freedom on July 31, U.S., Canadian and British troops faced almost daily attacks from insurgents. The Taliban have come back in great numbers and are well-equipped -- British commanders said the intensity of the fighting for the British could only be compared to that during the Korean War. Experts and even some military commanders have said the security situation in the south and in the eastern provinces, bordering Pakistan, was in danger of tipping; the media has warned of ISAF's failure, heralding serious security consequences for the West.

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A top German military official said he was angry about such reports.

"In light of this Herculean mission, it would be wrong and hasty to after only five years" call the mission a failure, Gen. Wolfgang Schneiderhan, the highest-ranking officer in Germany and a direct military adviser to the German government, said Tuesday evening in Berlin. "We knew that it would be difficult in the south."

The rising death toll of recent weeks has strained the mission. In Canada, a population not used to casualty-heavy conflicts, is urging politicians to bring their troops home.

Rudolf Adam, the head of the Federal Academy for Security Policy, a training center for Germany's top diplomats, said it had to be prevented at all costs that an ally would leave ISAF. "Then you could speak of a failure for NATO."

Mihai Carp, deputy head of the crisis management policy section at NATO, added that what was needed now is "solidarity and perseverance" among ISAF and OEF member countries.

The three officials spoke at a policy discussion organized by the Atlantic Initiative, a German group aimed at fostering trans-Atlantic ties. The group was founded during the Iraq war, when anti-Americanism reached its height in Germany.

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Germany, which has nearly 3,000 soldiers stationed in the northern provinces around Mazar-i-Sharif, Kunduz and Faizabad, leads the Provincial Reconstruction Teams tasked with improving infrastructure and living conditions of ordinary Afghans. The Germans have come under fire for confining their troops to the relatively stable north, while leaving the "dangerous dirty work" to allies in the south. These national caveats slow down ISAF's success, observers say.

In October, Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns told a German military conference via video link from Washington in unusually clear words that Germany should "rethink its national caveats ... and evaluate whether those restrictions" really helped to finish the job in Afghanistan.

Reminded of those words, Schneiderhan said Burns "shouldn't think that Germany would buckle down" just because he was pressuring Germany at a conference. Such methods, he added, "ensure that you're not getting what you want."

The Germans Tuesday got support and praise for their reconstruction efforts in the northern provinces of Afghanistan from a source who should know what's going on in the country.

"It is their approach with ordinary people that makes the Germans in the north so successful," said Maliha Zulfacar, the Afghan ambassador to Germany. Their approach "of concrete projects" had created jobs vital for stability in the north, she said. "With an empty stomach, democracy is hard to digest."

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A similar approach was needed for the southern provinces of Afghanistan, she said. An attaché of the Afghan embassy added that OEF's harsh military missions had driven many people in the south into the hands of the Taliban.

OEF patrols kicking in doors to private compounds in the morning and ISAF in the afternoon asking what it can do for them -- "of course that strategy doesn't work," one observer said on the sidelines of the discussion.

Adam said the military operations had to immediately be followed by concrete reconstruction efforts in order not to alienate ordinary Afghans, and chances for such plans are good. Schneiderhan said he had recently observed a phase of "rethinking" in U.S. military circles how to best stabilize Afghanistan, learning from past mistakes in Iraq.

Carp added the PRT concept was "a good try," and mission plans may soon be revised based on the actual security situation on the ground. "But ISAF and OEF absolutely need each other to succeed," he said.

Last Friday, ISAF started a new offensive, Operation Baaz Tsuka, against the Taliban in the Kandahar province of southern Afghanistan. So far, resistance has been weak.

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