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Analysis: New turmoil empowers Islamists

By CLAUDE SALHANI, UPI International Editor

RABAT, Morocco, July 14 (UPI) -- Earlier this week when Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers, the chambermaids in a major hotel in the Moroccan capital, Rabat, rejoiced. They praised Lebanon and the Shiite militia for their "heroic action in the face of the enemy." And this is Morocco, deemed to be a moderate Arab country.

Although Hezbollah is considered to be a terrorist organization by the United States and by Israel, it is regarded as a heroic resistance movement by most of the Arab world.

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Hezbollah was founded in the aftermath of the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Armed, equipped and largely financed by Iran -- and sometimes by Syria -- the Shiite organization was instrumental in forcing Israel out of south Lebanon after a long campaign of harassment against the Israel Defense Force. The continued attacks on IDF units in south Lebanon helped convince Israeli public opinion that the continued presence of Israeli troops in Lebanon was not worth the mounting casualties. Ehud Barak, Israel's prime minister at the time, ordered the immediate and unconditional withdrawal of all Israeli military units from south Lebanon.

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Israel's pullout from Lebanon gave aspiration to the Palestinians, particularly to Hamas, who shares the same Islamist ideology with Hezbollah, that they could emulate Hezbollah's actions and eventually force Israel out of the Palestinian territories. Hezbollah became the poster child of Hamas and the Palestinian resistance to Israeli occupation.

Although too late to be able to change the course of affairs, Israel realized they had committed a major policy mistake in pulling out of south Lebanon as they did under pressure from Hezbollah. Israel's precipitated departure from south Lebanon was hailed as a major victory by the Lebanese Shiite organization. The group's stock among the Lebanese, as well as among the Arab and Muslim streets, skyrocketed. Hezbollah was seen as the first Arab force to have not only successfully resisted, but to have forced Israel's hand militarily.

Many Israeli observers believe the IDF's departure from south Lebanon in 2000 under pressure from Hezbollah was a major error. "We cannot afford another south Lebanon," admitted a senior Israeli diplomat in Washington to this reporter shortly after the IDF's exodus from Lebanon but before their unilateral exit from Gaza.

Now once again a gross miscalculation in foreign policy is being made by Israel. Israel's knee-jerk reaction following the kidnapping of their two soldiers by Hezbollah is not going to turn Lebanese public opinion against the militant Shiite organization, as Israel hopes. In fact, it's quite the opposite that is likely to occur.

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The massive bombardment of Lebanon -- now in its third day -- the destruction of the runways at Beirut International Airport forcing its closure, the bombing of roads and bridges linking Beirut to other parts of the country and to the Syrian capital, Damascus, and the killing of more than 60 Lebanese civilians, including women and children, as a result of these bombardments will only help cement Hezbollah's popularity in the Arab world.

"What Israel is doing is making it extremely difficult for us to maintain a moderate policy and control the extremists," a high-ranking Moroccan government official who asked not to be identified told United Press International. "This is giving the Islamists exactly the kind of support we are trying to avoid."

Morocco is certainly not alone in expressing these sentiments, which officials here say will do nothing in helping fight the war on terrorism. "Israel's actions in Gaza and in Lebanon will only serve to empower the Islamists," confided the government official.

Israel holds the Lebanese government responsible for Hezbollah's actions given that Hezbollah has two ministers in the government. Israel feels that by forcing Lebanon's hand through severe military means, as it is currently doing, it will succeed in convincing the Lebanese government in disarming the Shiite militia.

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Israel would like to see the Lebanese army assume its responsibilities and deploy in the southern part of the country along the Lebanese-Israeli frontier, replacing Hezbollah which currently controls most of the Lebanese south. But that is unlikely to happen as long as Syria has anything to say in Lebanese politics. And although the Syrian military has withdrawn from Lebanon, Damascus continues to have its sway over Beirut chambers.

The current crisis which erupted over the kidnapping of three Israeli soldiers and the killing of eight others now risks expanding into a far wider conflagration, should Syria and/or Iran get dragged into the conflict. Syria houses the military wing of Hamas, the group responsible for the kidnapping of one soldier in Gaza. Iran supports Hezbollah.

Israel threatened that it would "drag Lebanon 20 years back" if their two soldiers are not released.

In bombing the airport, roads, bridges, etc. as it has, Israel has also succeeded in killing this year's tourist season, imperative to the survival of the Lebanese economy. And chances are it most-likely did manage to take Lebanon back a couple of decades.

But at the same time they have taken the war on terrorism back a decade or two. Israel's latest military campaign has managed to make U.S. President George W. Bush's initiative to win hearts and minds in the Middle East all that much more difficult. If those three chambermaids in Rabat, taxi drivers and assorted patrons in downtown cafes are any indication of the people's mood in the Arab world, Israel's latest military campaign will have served as a large-scale recruitment campaign for the Islamist parties, making the war on terror that much more complex.

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(Comments may be sent to [email protected].)

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